The demographic and technological trends that have caused intense competition for American newspapers are beginning to weigh heavily upon newspapers in Latin America, Stacy Lynch reported during her session of the joint Northwestern University and Inter-American Press Association seminar in Miami.

Lynch, former research manager for Northwestern’s Readership Institute, made her comments during one of the opening sessions of the Executive Development Program. The program — totally in Spanish — is in its second year. Northwestern’s Media Management Center and IAPA’s Press Institute launched the program in 2001.

Lynch said that the newspapers in Latin America will continue to face greater fragmentation of audience as cable TV continues to grow. She also cites great opportunities for the Internet world. Among her points were:

Age Disparities: Just as in the U.S., the population across Latin America will continue to become older in the next 30 years as life expectancy increases and fertility drops. Not only does it increase the importance of older readers, it changes what it means to be older. Just as we continue to see in the U.S., people will continue to be vital and active for decades more than just a generation or two ago. Media companies will need to decide how to serve both older, loyal readers and younger readers — and decide if and how segmentation can help.


Gabriela Vivanco Salvador, administrative vice president of Diario al Hora from Quito, Ecuador, makes comments to fellow participants in the Northwestern University/Inter-American Press Association Executive Development Program.

Metro Areas More Important: Another trend that continues to shape life in Latin America is continued urbanization. In 1950 only 30 percent of Latin Americans lived in major cities. That number will reach 85 percent in the coming decades. Much of this will come from higher birth rates in cities rather than ongoing migration from rural areas. With greater urbanization comes greater exposure to media. The pace of change will continue to accelerate so ideas and new technologies will be accepted more readily. It also points to greater numbers of women working outside the home and lower fertility rates in the future. The structure of families will change as well as the routine of daily life.

Cable Grows In Strength: In the realm of media competition, Latin American consumers continue to take advantage of increasing numbers of information and entertainment options. Cable penetration is now above 30 percent throughout the region, and time spent with broadcast and other media are on the rise. In the U.S. we've seen hours spent with newspapers and print media remain relatively flat in the last 20 years while TV, Internet and radio have increased steadily. There seems to be a pattern that the media that have experienced the most fragmentation have also experienced the most total growth in time spent. It begs the question whether increased variety in print media would be the most effective way to increase total print market share.

Internet Undeveloped: New media technologies haven't exploded in Latin America as one might have predicted 10 years ago. The rate of computers per 1,000 residents has remained essentially flat for more than 20 years, and penetration of the Internet remains in the single digits throughout much of the region. While we can speculate on the causes for the lag (cost, lack of Internet infrastructure, education levels) it's clear that much of the Internet potential there remains underdeveloped.

A side note on the issue of the future of the Internet: In a 1999 Kaiser Family Foundation study about kids and media, I found a bit of interesting information about how kids view their time with TV and the Internet. When asked the question "I learn something interesting most of the time (when I watch TV or when I'm on the Internet" — TV lagged far behind in kids' minds. Conversely, almost twice as many said that they were "just killing time" when they were watching TV as when they were using the Internet. It signals some of the deeper appeal behind these new technologies.